Wikileaks’ implication of Pak: No reason to be upbeat

Many of the Indian commentators were visibly upbeat these days thanks to the wikileaks’ confirmation of the Pakistan’s support to Taliban etc. It has rekindled an old Indian hope that US (on our behalf) would punish Pakistan for its actions. But those versatile with the history of US-Pak engagement know that there is no scope for optimism. As Raja Mohan of Indian Express rightly observes “The principal effect of the leaks will not be on US-Pak relations, but on American public support for the war. Most liberals and an increasing number of conservatives will draw the conclusion that the war in Afghanistan is not winnable and even if it can be turned around, the costs are not worth it.” The mounting public pressure will only hasten a messy retreat of America from Afghanistan.

On a related note, there is an excellent analysis of the developments by Spengler of Asian Times. He suggests that not just US or China, but even Indian govt dislikes a “solid proof” for Pak’s direct support to terrorists. Confrontation of solid evidence against Pak will compel the Indian govt. to make an open war with it… something it shies away. In Spengler’s words: “ India does not want America to call Pakistan to account. In the worst case, Pakistan might choose to support the Taliban and other terrorist organizations - including Kashmiri irredentists - openly rather than covertly. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, of whom the Economist on July 25 wrote "the strength of his coalition depends largely on how weak he is as Prime Minister", does not want to confront Pakistan. If Pakistan's support for anti-Indian terrorism became undeniable, India would have to act, and action is the last thing the Congress party-led coalition in New Delhi wants to consider.”

Hence, I don't feel these revelations are going to change anything in the present status-qou.